Summertime=Crime Time?

Because it’s now the middle of July, it’s appropriate to talk about U.S. crime rates during the summertime. Violent and property crime rates are typically higher during the summer than during other times of the year. What accounts for this seasonal trend? A major reason has to do with the opportunity for crime and victimization.

During the summer, people interact more than during colder months of the year. Once they interact, tempers can flare for all kinds of reasons, and interpersonal violence can result. The summer heat can also cause tempers to be short, again leading to violence. A crime like robbery is also more common during the summer than the winter. During the winter, fewer people (i.e., potential robbery victims) are out on the streets at night, and fewer robbers are out on the streets as well. Because there is a lower “supply” of both robbers and victims, robbery rates are lower.

What about property crime? Here, too, opportunity matters. During the summer, people spend more time away from their homes, and, when they do so, are more likely to leave a window open. Their homes are thus easier targets for burglars during the summer than during other times of the year. For similar reasons, there is also more opportunity for larceny—pickpocketing, shoplifting, bicycle theft, and so forth—and motor vehicle theft to occur.

Seasonal crime rates are very interesting but, after some reflection, not very surprising. The warm days of the summer promote crime and victimization, while the cold days of the winter (at least in areas of the nation that have winter!) inhibit crime and victimization. Perhaps it’s no accident that the states with the lowest crime rates are those at the top of the U.S. map. They tend to be cold much of the year, and they also tend to be fairly rural (partly because they’re so cold). As I always tell my students here in Maine, never leave our great state if you want to be safe from crime!